Matonense vs Flamengo SP Sunday 12th July 2026 11:00 PM football predictions.

Matonense Flamengo SP

Matonense D W W W D W

Flamengo SP W D W W W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 4, 26	Home	Assisense	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 27, 26	Away	Assisense	0 - 1	Win
Jun 20, 26	Home	Mogi Mirim	2 - 1	Win
Jun 14, 26	Away	Grêmio Catanduvense	0 - 13	Win
Jun 7, 26	Home	Sao Carlos	1 - 1	Draw
May 31, 26	Away	Santacruzense	1 - 2	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 4, 26	Home	Gremio Osasco Audax	2 - 1	Win
Jun 28, 26	Away	Gremio Osasco Audax	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 20, 26	Away	Gremio Osasco Audax	0 - 1	Win
Jun 13, 26	Home	Paulínia FU	1 - 0	Win
Jun 7, 26	Away	Sporting Paulinense	0 - 1	Win
May 31, 26	Away	Guarulhos	1 - 0	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	Flamengo SP	12	8	3	1	15	7	+8	27
4	Matonense	12	8	2	2	29	10	+19	26

This prediction suggests that there is a 53.55% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Matonense has a 60.85% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 21.11 %

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