Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi City Sunday 09th August 2026 01:00 PM football predictions.

Montedio Yamagata Tochigi City

Montedio Yamagata W L D W L L

Tochigi City L W D L W D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Tochigi City	Montedio Yamagata	3 - 0	May 16, 2026
Montedio Yamagata	Tochigi City	1 - 2	March 29, 2026

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 25, 26	Away	Albirex Niigata	3 - 4	Win
Jun 7, 26	Away	Oita Trinita	1 - 0	Loss
May 31, 26	Home	Matsumoto Yamaga	1 - 1	Draw
May 24, 26	Home	Shonan Bellmare	3 - 1	Win
May 16, 26	Away	Tochigi City	3 - 0	Loss
May 10, 26	Home	Sagamihara	2 - 3	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 15, 26	Away	Cerezo Osaka	1 - 0	Loss
Jun 6, 26	Home	Biwako Shiga	3 - 1	Win
May 30, 26	Home	Jubilo Iwata	2 - 2	Draw
May 24, 26	Away	Blaublitz Akita	1 - 0	Loss
May 16, 26	Home	Montedio Yamagata	3 - 0	Win
May 9, 26	Away	Thespakusatsu Gunma	0 - 0	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
26	Tochigi City	20	6	5	9	25	36	-11	23
31	Montedio Yamagata	19	6	3	10	21	26	-5	21

This prediction indicates that Montedio Yamagata has a 40.87% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.51 %

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