Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX Thursday 11th June 2026 05:00 AM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Monterey Bay Sporting JAX

Monterey Bay W W L L L L

Sporting JAX D D L L L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Monterey Bay Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 31, 26	Home	Loudoun United	4 - 1	Win
May 24, 26	Home	Birmingham Legion	2 - 0	Win
May 8, 26	Away	Lexington	3 - 1	Loss
May 3, 26	Home	FC Tulsa	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 18, 26	Away	Colorado Springs	4 - 1	Loss
Apr 11, 26	Away	Indy Eleven	3 - 1	Loss

Sporting JAX Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 31, 26	Home	Brooklyn	2 - 2	Draw
May 27, 26	Home	San Antonio	4 - 4	Draw
May 9, 26	Away	Indy Eleven	2 - 1	Loss
May 2, 26	Away	Charleston Battery	4 - 0	Loss
Apr 18, 26	Away	Louisville City	1 - 0	Loss
Apr 11, 26	Away	Detroit City	1 - 0	Loss

USL Championship Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
23	Monterey Bay	11	2	2	7	11	19	-8	8
25	Sporting JAX	11	0	3	8	12	26	-14	3

Predictions

Correct Prediction! ✅

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.15% likelihood that both Monterey Bay and Sporting JAX will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Monterey Bay to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that Monterey Bay has a 43.54% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 34.29 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 67.81% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 57.01% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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