Murang'a SEAL vs Mara Sugar Saturday 30th May 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

Murang'a SEAL Mara Sugar

Murang'a SEAL W L W L L L

Mara Sugar D L W L W W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Mara Sugar	Murang'a SEAL	1 - 3	December 22, 2025
Mara Sugar	Murang'a SEAL	0 - 0	June 15, 2025
Murang'a SEAL	Mara Sugar	1 - 1	September 29, 2024

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 24, 26	Away	Bidco United	0 - 2	Win
May 17, 26	Home	GOR Mahia	1 - 3	Loss
May 10, 26	Home	Homeboyz	1 - 0	Win
May 6, 26	Away	Police	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Away	Kariobangi Sharks	1 - 0	Loss
Apr 19, 26	Home	Nairobi United	2 - 4	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 27, 26	Home	GOR Mahia	0 - 0	Draw
May 16, 26	Home	Mathare United	0 - 1	Loss
May 13, 26	Home	Shabana	1 - 0	Win
May 9, 26	Away	AFC Leopards	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 24, 26	Away	Tusker	0 - 1	Win
Apr 18, 26	Away	Kariobangi Sharks	0 - 1	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
8	Mara Sugar	33	10	14	9	29	28	+1	44
10	Murang'a SEAL	33	12	8	13	40	40	0	44

This prediction suggests that there is a 56.42% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Murang'a SEAL will score 0 goals, and Mara Sugar will score 0 goals in the football match.

This prediction indicates that the football match is poised to end in a draw.

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.86% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 63.09% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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