Prva Liga
Match Analysis
Naftagas
Grafičar
Naftagas
L
L
L
D
W
Grafičar
D
W
L
L
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Both Naftagas and Grafičar are showing poor recent form, but Naftagas has a modest quality edge over their opponents. The model predicts a home win with a 40% probability, which is notably less confident than what the current market odds suggest. The model also leans toward an Under 1.5 goals outcome, again less confident than the market odds imply.
Naftagas Form (Last 5 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 26 | Away | Borac Cacak | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Dinamo Jug | 2 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | OFK Vršac | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 31, 26 | Away | Loznica | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 14, 26 | Away | Macva | 1 - 2 | Win |
Grafičar Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 26 | Home | Loznica | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 14, 26 | Away | FK Vozdovac | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Semendrija 1924 | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 2, 26 | Away | Napredak | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Borac Cacak | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | OFK Vršac | 1 - 0 | Win |
Prva Liga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grafičar | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Naftagas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 54.36% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Naftagas to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Naftagas has a 39.6% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.92 %Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 60.18% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
Subscribe to unlock scoreline predictions
View plans
Odds Comparison
Subscribe to compare bookmaker odds
View plans
Comments