Nanjing City vs Dongguan United Sunday 05th July 2026 02:30 PM football predictions.

Nanjing City Dongguan United

Nanjing City L L W D L W

Dongguan United L L D D L D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Nanjing City	Dongguan United	1 - 1	September 21, 2025
Dongguan United	Nanjing City	1 - 3	May 11, 2025
Dongguan United	Nanjing City	0 - 0	August 31, 2024
Nanjing City	Dongguan United	0 - 0	April 13, 2024
Nanjing City	Dongguan United	2 - 1	August 6, 2023
Dongguan United	Nanjing City	1 - 1	April 30, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 27, 26	Away	Hebei Kungfu	2 - 1	Loss
Jun 13, 26	Home	Ningbo Professional	1 - 2	Loss
May 29, 26	Away	Shaanxi Union	0 - 1	Win
May 23, 26	Away	Wuxi Wugou	1 - 1	Draw
May 15, 26	Away	Qingdao Red Lions	1 - 0	Loss
May 9, 26	Home	Meizhou Kejia	2 - 0	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 27, 26	Home	Yanbian Longding	0 - 2	Loss
Jun 14, 26	Home	Shaanxi Union	0 - 5	Loss
May 30, 26	Away	Guangxi Hengchen	3 - 3	Draw
May 23, 26	Home	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	1 - 1	Draw
May 15, 26	Away	Langfang Glory City	1 - 0	Loss
May 10, 26	Home	Suzhou Dongwu	1 - 1	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
10	Nanjing City	12	4	3	5	11	12	-1	15
14	Dongguan United	12	2	4	6	14	23	-9	10

This prediction indicates that Nanjing City has a 39.42% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 35.16 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.21% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.61% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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