Nanjing City vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring Sunday 16th August 2026 02:30 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Nanjing City Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Nanjing City D L L L W L

Heilongjiang Lava Spring L D L D L D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Heilongjiang Lava Spring	Nanjing City	1 - 1	April 12, 2026
Nanjing City	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	2 - 0	October 19, 2025
Heilongjiang Lava Spring	Nanjing City	2 - 1	June 15, 2025
Heilongjiang Lava Spring	Nanjing City	2 - 1	August 25, 2024
Nanjing City	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	3 - 2	April 6, 2024
Heilongjiang Lava Spring	Nanjing City	3 - 0	July 29, 2023

Nanjing City Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 1, 26	Away	Yanbian Longding	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 25, 26	Away	Changchun Yatai	2 - 1	Loss
Jul 18, 26	Home	Guangzhou E-Power	0 - 1	Loss
Jul 11, 26	Away	Dalian Huayi	2 - 0	Loss
Jul 5, 26	Home	Dongguan United	3 - 1	Win
Jun 27, 26	Away	Hebei Kungfu	2 - 1	Loss

Heilongjiang Lava Spring Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 1, 26	Away	Nantong Zhiyun	5 - 1	Loss
Jul 26, 26	Away	Guangxi Hengchen	4 - 4	Draw
Jul 18, 26	Home	Ningbo Professional	0 - 1	Loss
Jul 12, 26	Away	Shenzhen Juniors	3 - 3	Draw
Jul 4, 26	Away	Yanbian Longding	3 - 0	Loss
Jun 28, 26	Home	Wuxi Wugou	3 - 3	Draw

League One Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
10	Nanjing City	17	5	4	8	16	19	-3	19
12	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	17	3	9	5	26	34	-8	18

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.83% likelihood that both Nanjing City and Heilongjiang Lava Spring will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Nanjing City to win

This prediction indicates that Nanjing City has a 42.07% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.06 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.37% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.01% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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