New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa Sunday 16th August 2026 04:30 AM football predictions.

New Mexico United FC Tulsa

New Mexico United W W D W D D

FC Tulsa W D W L W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
FC Tulsa	New Mexico United	3 - 0	November 16, 2025
New Mexico United	FC Tulsa	0 - 1	September 14, 2025
FC Tulsa	New Mexico United	5 - 2	August 10, 2025
FC Tulsa	New Mexico United	1 - 1	October 13, 2024
New Mexico United	FC Tulsa	3 - 3	August 15, 2024
New Mexico United	FC Tulsa	2 - 1	August 27, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 15, 26	Away	Lexington	1 - 4	Win
Jul 5, 26	Home	Oakland Roots	2 - 1	Win
Jul 2, 26	Home	Atlante FC	3 - 3	Draw
Jun 21, 26	Away	Sacramento Republic	0 - 1	Win
Jun 14, 26	Home	Orange County SC	1 - 1	Draw
May 30, 26	Away	Hartford Athletic	0 - 0	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 29, 26	Away	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0 - 1	Win
Jul 26, 26	Home	Lexington	0 - 0	Draw
Jul 19, 26	Home	El Paso Locomotive	1 - 0	Win
Jun 21, 26	Home	Colorado Springs	1 - 2	Loss
Jun 18, 26	Home	Monterey Bay	2 - 0	Win
Jun 13, 26	Away	Charleston Battery	5 - 1	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
7	FC Tulsa	16	7	5	4	19	16	+3	26
9	New Mexico United	14	7	3	4	19	15	+4	24

This prediction indicates that New Mexico United has a 40.36% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.19 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.79% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.94% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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