USL Championship
Match Analysis
New Mexico United
Lexington
New Mexico United
W
W
W
W
D
W
Lexington
W
W
D
W
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington | New Mexico United | 1 - 4 | July 15, 2026 |
| New Mexico United | Lexington | 2 - 1 | September 28, 2025 |
| Lexington | New Mexico United | 2 - 1 | June 14, 2025 |
New Mexico United Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Monterey Bay | 2 - 5 | Win |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Colorado Springs | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 15, 26 | Away | Lexington | 1 - 4 | Win |
| Jul 5, 26 | Home | Oakland Roots | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 2, 26 | Home | Atlante FC | 3 - 3 | Draw |
| Jun 21, 26 | Away | Sacramento Republic | 0 - 1 | Win |
Lexington Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Phoenix Rising | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Monterey Bay | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | FC Tulsa | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 22, 26 | Home | Oakland Roots | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 15, 26 | Home | New Mexico United | 1 - 4 | Loss |
| Jul 4, 26 | Away | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1 - 4 | Win |
USL Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lexington | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 22 | +6 | 28 |
| 9 | New Mexico United | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 27 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.19% likelihood that both New Mexico United and Lexington will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.New Mexico United to win
This prediction indicates that New Mexico United has a 47.38% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.93 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.68% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.55% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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