HNL
Match Analysis
NK Varazdin
HNK Rijeka
NK Varazdin
W
W
L
W
W
W
HNK Rijeka
D
W
W
W
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts a draw between NK Varazdin and HNK Rijeka with a 35% probability. Despite HNK Rijeka having a modest quality edge, NK Varazdin has dominated their recent meetings, and both teams are in strong form, making a draw a plausible outcome. The market odds also reflect some uncertainty, showing relatively close prices for all three possible results, which aligns with the model's view that a draw is a reasonable scenario. Additionally, the model sees a 56% chance that both teams will score and a 53% chance that more than 1.5 goals will be scored, suggesting an open, attacking game but with defense still playing a role.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Varazdin | HNK Rijeka | 1 - 0 | April 22, 2026 |
| HNK Rijeka | NK Varazdin | 3 - 1 | February 14, 2026 |
| NK Varazdin | HNK Rijeka | 1 - 0 | November 9, 2025 |
| HNK Rijeka | NK Varazdin | 1 - 2 | August 24, 2025 |
| HNK Rijeka | NK Varazdin | 1 - 0 | April 13, 2025 |
| NK Varazdin | HNK Rijeka | 1 - 0 | February 1, 2025 |
NK Varazdin Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | NK Slaven Belupo | 1 - 4 | Win |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 30, 26 | Away | Hradec Králové | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 23, 26 | Home | Hradec Králové | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 16, 26 | Home | Kustosija | 3 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 16, 26 | Home | Beltinci | 2 - 0 | Win |
HNK Rijeka Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 26 | Away | Ilves | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 6, 26 | Home | Ilves | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Rudes | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 30, 26 | Away | Derry City | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 23, 26 | Home | Derry City | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 16, 26 | Home | Dekani | 2 - 0 | Win |
HNL Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.61% likelihood that both NK Varazdin and HNK Rijeka will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Correct Score 2 - 2
This prediction indicates that NK Varazdin will score 2 goals, and HNK Rijeka will score 2 goals in the football match.Match Result (1X2) - Draw
This prediction indicates that the football match is poised to end in a draw.Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.99% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.79% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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