North Texas vs St. Louis City II Sunday 05th July 2026 03:45 AM football predictions.

Match Analysis

North Texas St. Louis City II

North Texas D L D W W L

St. Louis City II L D W D L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
St. Louis City II	North Texas	2 - 0	May 30, 2026
North Texas	St. Louis City II	1 - 3	August 17, 2025
St. Louis City II	North Texas	2 - 0	June 5, 2025
North Texas	St. Louis City II	0 - 3	March 10, 2025
North Texas	St. Louis City II	0 - 0	November 3, 2024
St. Louis City II	North Texas	4 - 0	August 25, 2024

North Texas Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 11, 26	Away	Whitecaps II	1 - 1	Draw
May 30, 26	Away	St. Louis City II	2 - 0	Loss
May 24, 26	Home	San Jose Earthquakes II	2 - 2	Draw
May 17, 26	Home	Swope Park Rangers	5 - 1	Win
May 10, 26	Away	Minnesota United II	0 - 2	Win
May 3, 26	Home	Austin II	0 - 2	Loss

St. Louis City II Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 20, 26	Away	Minnesota United II	5 - 2	Loss
Jun 7, 26	Away	Colorado Rapids II	1 - 1	Draw
May 30, 26	Home	North Texas	2 - 0	Win
May 24, 26	Away	Los Angeles II	1 - 1	Draw
May 18, 26	Away	Austin II	4 - 1	Loss
May 9, 26	Home	Houston Dynamo FC II	1 - 4	Loss

MLS Next Pro Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
7	St. Louis City II	15	7	5	3	28	23	+5	26
23	North Texas	14	4	5	5	23	20	+3	17

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 60.44% likelihood that both North Texas and St. Louis City II will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

St. Louis City II to win

This prediction indicates that St. Louis City II has a 44.06% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.91 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 65.84% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 66.14% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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