Liga I
Match Analysis
Oţelul
Arges Pitesti
Oţelul
D
L
D
D
W
W
Arges Pitesti
D
W
W
W
L
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts a home win for Oţelul with a 41% probability. Despite the teams being closely matched in overall quality, Oţelul's recent creation of significantly more shooting chances gives them a slight edge, even though Arges Pitesti have shown stronger recent form and possess a rest advantage. The market odds imply a similar level of confidence in a home win, and the model’s view aligns closely with what the odds suggest.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oţelul | Arges Pitesti | 2 - 1 | December 20, 2025 |
| Arges Pitesti | Oţelul | 2 - 0 | August 18, 2025 |
Oţelul Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | CS Universitatea Craiova | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Petrolul Ploiesti | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 31, 26 | Home | Dinamo Bucuresti | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 24, 26 | Away | Uta Arad | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | CFR 1907 Cluj | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 11, 26 | Home | FC Bacau | 3 - 1 | Win |
Arges Pitesti Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 26 | Home | Farul Constanta | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | CS Universitatea Craiova | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 31, 26 | Home | Csikszereda | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 24, 26 | Home | Petrolul Ploiesti | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 17, 26 | Away | FCSB | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 10, 26 | Home | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Liga I Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arges Pitesti | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | Oţelul | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 54.88% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Oţelul to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Oţelul has a 40.74% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 33.51 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 60.44% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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