Copa Colombia
Match Analysis
Once Caldas
Alianza Petrolera
Once Caldas
D
D
L
D
W
W
Alianza Petrolera
L
D
L
L
D
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model sees a clear quality gap favoring Once Caldas, which suggests they should have an edge in this match. Despite Alianza Petrolera's dominance in recent head-to-head encounters, Once Caldas' moderate recent form and the fact they've been creating many more shooting chances recently work in their favor. The model predicts a home win with a 54% probability, which aligns closely with the market's view since the odds also imply a strong chance for Once Caldas to win. Additionally, the model leans towards an outcome with fewer goals, both for under 1.5 and under 2.5 goals, slightly more confidently than the market odds suggest.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Petrolera | Once Caldas | 1 - 1 | February 8, 2026 |
| Alianza Petrolera | Once Caldas | 0 - 0 | August 15, 2025 |
| Once Caldas | Alianza Petrolera | 1 - 2 | March 2, 2025 |
| Alianza Petrolera | Once Caldas | 1 - 0 | October 6, 2024 |
| Once Caldas | Alianza Petrolera | 1 - 0 | March 25, 2024 |
| Alianza Petrolera | Once Caldas | 2 - 1 | September 26, 2023 |
Once Caldas Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 26 | Away | Junior | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Jaguares | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 6, 26 | Home | America de Cali | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 3, 26 | Away | Santa Fe | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 30, 26 | Away | Envigado | 0 - 3 | Win |
| Jul 27, 26 | Home | Cucuta | 5 - 1 | Win |
Alianza Petrolera Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 26 | Away | Cucuta | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Deportivo Pereira | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Bucaramanga | 2 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Deportes Tolima | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Fortaleza FC | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| May 24, 26 | Away | Bucaramanga | 2 - 1 | Loss |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 54.02% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Once Caldas to win
This prediction indicates that Once Caldas has a 53.76% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.58 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.39% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 57.14% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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