Orange County SC vs Louisville City Sunday 16th August 2026 05:00 AM football predictions.

Orange County SC Louisville City

Orange County SC W D D W W D

Louisville City W W L W D W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Orange County SC	Louisville City	0 - 0	October 19, 2025
Louisville City	Orange County SC	3 - 0	May 11, 2024
Orange County SC	Louisville City	1 - 3	March 12, 2023
Louisville City	Orange County SC	3 - 1	June 19, 2022

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 26, 26	Away	Monterey Bay	1 - 2	Win
Jul 8, 26	Away	Hartford Athletic	2 - 2	Draw
Jul 4, 26	Away	Rhode Island	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 24, 26	Away	Miami FC	2 - 4	Win
Jun 21, 26	Away	Las Vegas Lights	2 - 3	Win
Jun 14, 26	Away	New Mexico United	1 - 1	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 29, 26	Home	Birmingham Legion	2 - 1	Win
Jul 26, 26	Home	Trinidad and Tobago	1 - 0	Win
Jul 18, 26	Away	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3 - 1	Loss
Jul 5, 26	Home	Hartford Athletic	1 - 0	Win
Jun 14, 26	Home	Brooklyn	2 - 2	Draw
Jun 11, 26	Away	Phoenix Rising	0 - 2	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Orange County SC	17	8	7	2	27	19	+8	31
6	Louisville City	17	8	3	6	28	26	+2	27

This prediction indicates that Orange County SC has a 41.92% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.04 %

Subscribe to unlock scoreline predictions View plans

[[ comment.user.username ]]

This comment has been removed

[[ comment.user.username ]]

[[ comment.comment ]]

[[comment.humanizedSubmitDate]] [[comment.starsCount]] [[comment.starsCount]] [[comment.repliesCount]] Reply Reply