USL Championship
Match Analysis
Orange County SC
Monterey Bay
Orange County SC
L
D
D
L
L
L
Monterey Bay
D
D
L
D
L
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monterey Bay | Orange County SC | 1 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| Monterey Bay | Orange County SC | 2 - 1 | July 12, 2025 |
| Orange County SC | Monterey Bay | 0 - 3 | March 23, 2025 |
| Monterey Bay | Orange County SC | 0 - 0 | September 22, 2024 |
| Orange County SC | Monterey Bay | 2 - 0 | April 28, 2024 |
| Monterey Bay | Orange County SC | 0 - 1 | October 15, 2023 |
Orange County SC Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Home | Las Vegas Lights | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Sep 6, 26 | Home | Sacramento Republic | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 30, 26 | Away | Oakland Roots | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | FC Tulsa | 1 - 5 | Loss |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Louisville City | 2 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 0 - 3 | Loss |
Monterey Bay Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 26 | Home | Phoenix Rising | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 30, 26 | Home | Sacramento Republic | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Rhode Island | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | Oakland Roots | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | New Mexico United | 2 - 5 | Loss |
| Aug 6, 26 | Away | El Paso Locomotive | 1 - 0 | Loss |
USL Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Orange County SC | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 36 |
| 23 | Monterey Bay | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 42 | -17 | 18 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.71% likelihood that both Orange County SC and Monterey Bay will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Orange County SC to win
This prediction indicates that Orange County SC has a 56.66% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 23.05 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.16% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.91% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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