Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia Thursday 24th September 2026 10:00 AM football predictions.

Friendlies

Sept. 24, 2026 5 days, 5 hours from now VS

Papua New Guinea New Caledonia

Papua New Guinea D W W W L D

New Caledonia W L W W L W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Papua New Guinea	New Caledonia	1 - 3	October 11, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Nov 23, 25	Home	Vanuatu	1 - 1	Draw
Nov 20, 25	Home	Fiji	2 - 0	Win
Nov 13, 25	Home	Solomon Islands	1 - 0	Win
Dec 21, 24	Away	Vanuatu	1 - 2	Win
Mar 25, 24	Away	Central African Republic	4 - 0	Loss
Mar 22, 24	Away	Sri Lanka	0 - 0	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Oct 8, 25	Away	Gibraltar	0 - 2	Win
Oct 14, 23	Away	Solomon Islands	1 - 0	Loss
Oct 11, 23	Away	Papua New Guinea	1 - 3	Win
Oct 8, 23	Home	Vanuatu	4 - 0	Win
Mar 24, 23	Away	Tahiti	2 - 1	Loss
Mar 21, 23	Away	Tahiti	0 - 2	Win

This prediction suggests that there is a 52.73% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Papua New Guinea has a 40.76% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.30 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.57% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 63.05% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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