Primera División - Apertura
Match Analysis
Penarol
Boston River
Penarol
W
W
W
L
D
W
Boston River
L
L
L
D
W
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | Boston River | 3 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| Boston River | Penarol | 0 - 2 | March 25, 2026 |
| Boston River | Penarol | 2 - 1 | August 15, 2025 |
| Penarol | Boston River | 1 - 1 | February 15, 2025 |
| Penarol | Boston River | 2 - 0 | October 19, 2024 |
| Boston River | Penarol | 1 - 3 | April 20, 2024 |
Penarol Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 26 | Away | Cerro | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Sep 13, 26 | Home | Albion FC | 3 - 1 | Win |
| Sep 5, 26 | Away | Danubio | 0 - 4 | Win |
| Aug 30, 26 | Home | Club Nacional | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Deportivo Maldonado | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Central Espanol | 2 - 1 | Win |
Boston River Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 26 | Home | Progreso | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Sep 12, 26 | Away | Racing Montevideo | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | Liverpool Montevideo | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Cerro | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 21, 26 | Away | Albion FC | 2 - 3 | Win |
| Aug 14, 26 | Home | Danubio | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Primera División - Apertura Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 51 | 24 | +27 | 59 |
| 14 | Boston River | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 30 |
Predictions
Penarol to win
This prediction indicates that Penarol has a 67.94% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 19.85 %Most Likely Scorelines
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