Primera División - Apertura
Match Analysis
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Penarol
W
D
W
L
L
W
Cerro Largo
W
D
D
W
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Penarol carries a clear quality gap in their favor over Cerro Largo, and has dominated recent meetings between the two sides. The model predicts a home win with a 56% probability, which is notably more confident than what the current market odds suggest. Penarol also benefits from a rest advantage and has shown strong attacking form recently, creating many more chances than Cerro Largo. Additionally, the model sees a slight edge toward 'over' for the over/under 1.5 goals market (53% over), though this aligns closely with the market’s view.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo | Penarol | 2 - 3 | May 11, 2026 |
| Cerro Largo | Penarol | 1 - 3 | September 27, 2025 |
| Cerro Largo | Penarol | 1 - 1 | June 1, 2025 |
| Penarol | Cerro Largo | 0 - 2 | March 30, 2025 |
| Penarol | Cerro Largo | 0 - 0 | August 17, 2024 |
| Cerro Largo | Penarol | 1 - 2 | February 18, 2024 |
Penarol Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Boston River | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 12, 26 | Away | Racing Montevideo | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jun 7, 26 | Away | Cerro | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jun 1, 26 | Home | Central Espanol | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| May 28, 26 | Home | Santa Fe | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| May 24, 26 | Away | Defensor Sporting | 0 - 2 | Win |
Cerro Largo Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Central Espanol | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 13, 26 | Home | Defensor Sporting | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jun 8, 26 | Away | Liverpool Montevideo | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| May 29, 26 | Home | Cerro | 2 - 0 | Win |
| May 23, 26 | Home | Boston River | 3 - 0 | Win |
| May 17, 26 | Away | Racing Montevideo | 1 - 0 | Loss |
Primera División - Apertura Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Penarol | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 19 | +13 | 40 |
| 10 | Cerro Largo | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 28 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 51.96% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Penarol to win
This prediction indicates that Penarol has a 56.48% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.19 %Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.64% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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