Penarol vs Cerro Largo Monday 27th July 2026 12:30 AM football predictions.

Penarol Cerro Largo

Penarol D W L L W D

Cerro Largo D W W L L W

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Cerro Largo	Penarol	2 - 3	May 11, 2026
Cerro Largo	Penarol	1 - 3	September 27, 2025
Cerro Largo	Penarol	1 - 1	June 1, 2025
Penarol	Cerro Largo	0 - 2	March 30, 2025
Penarol	Cerro Largo	0 - 0	August 17, 2024
Cerro Largo	Penarol	1 - 2	February 18, 2024

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 12, 26	Away	Racing Montevideo	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 7, 26	Away	Cerro	0 - 1	Win
Jun 1, 26	Home	Central Espanol	0 - 1	Loss
May 28, 26	Home	Santa Fe	0 - 1	Loss
May 24, 26	Away	Defensor Sporting	0 - 2	Win
May 22, 26	Home	Corinthians	1 - 1	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 8, 26	Away	Liverpool Montevideo	0 - 0	Draw
May 29, 26	Home	Cerro	2 - 0	Win
May 23, 26	Home	Boston River	3 - 0	Win
May 17, 26	Away	Racing Montevideo	1 - 0	Loss
May 11, 26	Home	Penarol	2 - 3	Loss
May 3, 26	Away	Progreso	0 - 1	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	Penarol	19	11	3	5	28	18	+10	36
10	Cerro Largo	19	7	3	9	21	20	+1	24

This prediction suggests that there is a 55.26% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Penarol has a 60.71% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.36 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.71% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 57.47% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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