Primera División - Apertura
Match Analysis
Penarol
Club Nacional
Penarol
W
W
W
W
D
W
Club Nacional
L
L
W
W
L
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Nacional | Penarol | 0 - 1 | March 1, 2026 |
| Club Nacional | Penarol | 0 - 0 | November 30, 2025 |
| Penarol | Club Nacional | 2 - 2 | November 23, 2025 |
| Penarol | Club Nacional | 3 - 0 | August 9, 2025 |
| Penarol | Club Nacional | 0 - 0 | July 6, 2025 |
| Penarol | Club Nacional | 0 - 0 | July 6, 2025 |
Penarol Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Central Espanol | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 5, 26 | Home | Wanderers | 5 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Cerro Largo | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Boston River | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 12, 26 | Away | Racing Montevideo | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jun 7, 26 | Away | Cerro | 0 - 1 | Win |
Club Nacional Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Racing Montevideo | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Boston River | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Progreso | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 28, 26 | Away | Tigre | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 21, 26 | Home | Tigre | 0 - 3 | Loss |
| Jul 17, 26 | Home | Wanderers | 1 - 2 | Loss |
Primera División - Apertura Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 40 | 20 | +20 | 46 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 24 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 35 | 33 | +2 | 35 |
Predictions
Penarol to win
This prediction indicates that Penarol has a 57.61% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.48 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.01% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.78% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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