PFC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula Friday 26th June 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

PFC Sochi Arsenal Tula

PFC Sochi D L W L W W

Arsenal Tula D L L L D D

STRENGTH

POSSESSION

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
PFC Sochi	Arsenal Tula	5 - 1	May 3, 2025
Arsenal Tula	PFC Sochi	1 - 1	October 13, 2024
PFC Sochi	Arsenal Tula	2 - 0	February 26, 2022
Arsenal Tula	PFC Sochi	1 - 2	October 31, 2021
PFC Sochi	Arsenal Tula	4 - 0	February 27, 2021
Arsenal Tula	PFC Sochi	3 - 2	September 20, 2020

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 17, 26	Home	Akhmat	1 - 1	Draw
May 10, 26	Away	Zenit	2 - 1	Loss
May 3, 26	Home	Torpedo Moskva	3 - 1	Win
Apr 26, 26	Away	Dynamo	2 - 0	Loss
Apr 21, 26	Home	Krylia Sovetov	2 - 1	Win
Apr 17, 26	Away	FC Rostov	0 - 1	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 21, 26	Home	Spartak Kostroma	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 17, 26	Home	Volga Ulyanovsk	1 - 2	Loss
May 16, 26	Home	Rodina Moskva	1 - 4	Loss
May 11, 26	Away	Enisey	1 - 0	Loss
May 4, 26	Home	Rotor Volgograd	2 - 2	Draw
Apr 25, 26	Away	Spartak Kostroma	1 - 1	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
92	PFC Sochi	8	4	3	1	18	15	+3	15
456	Arsenal Tula	8	2	2	4	13	18	-5	8

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.0% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that PFC Sochi has a 50.84% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.50 %

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