Ekstraklasa
Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin
Motor Lublin
Pogon Szczecin
W
L
L
L
W
L
Motor Lublin
L
D
W
W
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The match between Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin shows the teams as closely matched in overall quality, but Pogon Szczecin has dominated their recent meetings, which often included many goals. The model predicts a home win with a 48% probability, which is slightly less confident than what the current market odds imply for a home victory. The model also sees a strong chance of over 1.5 goals happening (60% probability), agreeing with the market odds that strongly favor this outcome. Additionally, there is a 59% chance both teams will score, which aligns with the market's view that this is quite likely.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Lublin | Pogon Szczecin | 2 - 1 | February 1, 2026 |
| Pogon Szczecin | Motor Lublin | 4 - 1 | July 26, 2025 |
| Pogon Szczecin | Motor Lublin | 3 - 0 | May 14, 2025 |
| Motor Lublin | Pogon Szczecin | 4 - 2 | November 2, 2024 |
Pogon Szczecin Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 26 | Away | Cracovia Krakow | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 24, 26 | Home | Legia Warszawa | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 15, 26 | Away | Sturm Graz | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 11, 26 | Away | Fenerbahce | 4 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 8, 26 | Home | Chrobry Głogów | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 4, 26 | Away | Zaglebie Lubin | 2 - 0 | Loss |
Motor Lublin Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 26 | Home | Jagiellonia | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Widzew Łódź | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 17, 26 | Home | Hapoel Katamon | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 11, 26 | Home | Polonia Warszawa | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 3, 26 | Home | Warta Poznań | 4 - 1 | Win |
| Jun 27, 26 | Home | Dinamo Bucuresti | 3 - 1 | Win |
Ekstraklasa Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pogon Szczecin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Motor Lublin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.91% likelihood that both Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Pogon Szczecin to win
This prediction indicates that Pogon Szczecin has a 47.8% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.63 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 59.77% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.75% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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