Primera División - Apertura
Match Analysis
Progreso
Cerro
Progreso
W
L
L
L
L
W
Cerro
D
L
W
W
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro | Progreso | 0 - 1 | March 14, 2026 |
| Progreso | Cerro | 2 - 0 | October 5, 2025 |
| Cerro | Progreso | 0 - 0 | April 6, 2025 |
| Progreso | Cerro | 0 - 1 | September 14, 2024 |
| Cerro | Progreso | 2 - 3 | March 1, 2024 |
| Cerro | Progreso | 1 - 1 | September 10, 2022 |
Progreso Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Danubio | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 23, 26 | Away | Club Nacional | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Deportivo Maldonado | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Central Espanol | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 2, 26 | Away | Club Nacional | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Deportivo Maldonado | 1 - 0 | Win |
Cerro Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 26 | Away | Boston River | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 21, 26 | Away | Liverpool Montevideo | 4 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Albion FC | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Danubio | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 3, 26 | Away | Defensor Sporting | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Racing Montevideo | 1 - 0 | Win |
Primera División - Apertura Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cerro | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 40 | -22 | 26 |
| 16 | Progreso | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 19 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 54.85% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Progreso to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Progreso has a 39.72% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.70 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 60.41% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 62.55% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
Subscribe to unlock scoreline predictions
View plans
Comments