Primera División - Apertura
Match Analysis
Progreso
Danubio
Progreso
L
L
L
W
L
L
Danubio
D
L
D
L
D
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | Progreso | 1 - 2 | May 30, 2026 |
| Danubio | Progreso | 2 - 2 | February 28, 2026 |
| Progreso | Danubio | 1 - 0 | August 24, 2025 |
| Progreso | Danubio | 0 - 1 | May 31, 2025 |
| Danubio | Progreso | 1 - 1 | February 23, 2025 |
| Progreso | Danubio | 0 - 0 | October 12, 2024 |
Progreso Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Deportivo Maldonado | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Central Espanol | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 2, 26 | Away | Club Nacional | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Deportivo Maldonado | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 11, 26 | Away | Wanderers | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jun 7, 26 | Home | Albion FC | 1 - 2 | Loss |
Danubio Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 26 | Away | Boston River | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Cerro | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Albion FC | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 24, 26 | Away | Atletico Torque | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 11, 26 | Home | Club Nacional | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 5, 26 | Home | Juventud | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Primera División - Apertura Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Danubio | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 23 |
| 16 | Progreso | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 35 | -17 | 16 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 53.32% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Danubio to win
This prediction indicates that Danubio has a 46.61% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.38 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 60.15% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 62.28% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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