Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Saturday 18th July 2026 06:30 PM football predictions.

Progreso Deportivo Maldonado

Progreso L W L L L L

Deportivo Maldonado W W D W W W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Deportivo Maldonado	Progreso	2 - 0	February 14, 2026
Deportivo Maldonado	Progreso	2 - 2	October 6, 2024
Progreso	Deportivo Maldonado	0 - 1	July 21, 2024
Progreso	Deportivo Maldonado	3 - 1	March 31, 2024
Progreso	Deportivo Maldonado	2 - 0	October 21, 2021
Deportivo Maldonado	Progreso	1 - 1	June 24, 2021

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 7, 26	Home	Albion FC	1 - 2	Loss
May 30, 26	Away	Danubio	1 - 2	Win
May 23, 26	Home	Atletico Torque	1 - 2	Loss
May 16, 26	Away	Juventud	2 - 0	Loss
May 10, 26	Away	Atletico Torque	2 - 1	Loss
May 3, 26	Home	Cerro Largo	0 - 1	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 6, 26	Away	Atletico Torque	2 - 4	Win
May 31, 26	Home	Club Nacional	3 - 0	Win
May 24, 26	Away	Wanderers	1 - 1	Draw
May 18, 26	Home	Danubio	3 - 1	Win
May 11, 26	Home	Boston River	2 - 1	Win
May 2, 26	Away	Cerro	0 - 1	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Maldonado	19	12	3	4	35	20	+15	39
15	Progreso	19	3	4	12	16	30	-14	13

This prediction suggests that there is a 52.03% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Deportivo Maldonado has a 54.64% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.62 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.4% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.2% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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