Progreso vs Racing Montevideo Saturday 26th September 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Primera División - Apertura

Sept. 26, 2026 3 days, 11 hours from now VS

Progreso Racing Montevideo

Progreso W L W W L L

Racing Montevideo D W L W D W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Racing Montevideo	Progreso	1 - 1	March 26, 2026
Racing Montevideo	Progreso	0 - 0	September 29, 2025
Racing Montevideo	Progreso	3 - 0	June 22, 2025
Progreso	Racing Montevideo	0 - 1	March 30, 2025
Racing Montevideo	Progreso	1 - 0	September 21, 2024
Progreso	Racing Montevideo	3 - 2	July 7, 2024

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 19, 26	Away	Boston River	1 - 2	Win
Sep 13, 26	Home	Cerro	1 - 3	Loss
Sep 7, 26	Away	Albion FC	0 - 1	Win
Aug 29, 26	Home	Danubio	1 - 0	Win
Aug 23, 26	Away	Club Nacional	1 - 0	Loss
Aug 16, 26	Home	Deportivo Maldonado	0 - 2	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 20, 26	Away	Liverpool Montevideo	0 - 0	Draw
Sep 12, 26	Home	Boston River	3 - 2	Win
Sep 6, 26	Away	Cerro	1 - 0	Loss
Aug 31, 26	Home	Albion FC	1 - 0	Win
Aug 23, 26	Away	Danubio	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 15, 26	Home	Club Nacional	2 - 0	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Racing Montevideo	29	14	11	4	35	22	+13	53
16	Progreso	29	7	4	18	23	42	-19	25

This prediction suggests that there is a 56.54% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Racing Montevideo has a 47.23% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.59 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 63.92% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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