Primera Nacional
Match Analysis
Quilmes
San Telmo
Quilmes
D
W
D
L
L
W
San Telmo
L
W
L
L
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Quilmes has a modest quality edge over San Telmo, but both teams have been in poor recent form and have similar rest coming into this match. The model predicts a home win with a 45% probability, which is notably more confident than what the market odds imply. The model also sees a lower likelihood of both teams scoring and of the match producing more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, aligning with the generally lower chances suggested by the market odds.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Telmo | Quilmes | 0 - 3 | March 29, 2026 |
| San Telmo | Quilmes | 3 - 2 | June 19, 2022 |
Quilmes Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Almagro | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 5, 26 | Home | Gimnasia Jujuy | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Patronato | 3 - 3 | Draw |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Colegiales | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 12, 26 | Away | Midland | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 4, 26 | Home | Atlanta | 2 - 1 | Win |
San Telmo Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Colon Santa Fe | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | San Miguel | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Racing Cordoba | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 11, 26 | Home | Chaco For Ever | 1 - 3 | Loss |
| Jul 5, 26 | Away | Ferro Carril Oeste | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jun 20, 26 | Home | Racing Cordoba | 2 - 0 | Win |
Primera Nacional Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Quilmes | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 29 |
| 32 | San Telmo | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 23 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 57.36% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Quilmes to win
This prediction indicates that Quilmes has a 44.98% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 34.00 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 63.03% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 67.4% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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