Virsliga
Match Analysis
Rīgas FS
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
L
D
W
W
W
W
Grobiņa
L
D
L
W
L
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Rīgas FS is seen as clearly stronger than Grobiņa, with better recent form and a history of dominating past encounters. The model predicts an 80% chance of a home win, which is much more confident than the market odds suggest. Additionally, the model expects plenty of goals, forecasting over 1.5 goals with 66% probability and over 2.5 goals with 68% probability, both of which align with Rīgas FS's recent attacking strength and Grobiņa's defensive issues. Despite Grobiņa's rest advantage, these factors strongly favor Rīgas FS for a decisive victory.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grobiņa | Rīgas FS | 1 - 3 | June 13, 2026 |
| Grobiņa | Rīgas FS | 0 - 1 | April 22, 2026 |
| Rīgas FS | Grobiņa | 3 - 2 | January 21, 2026 |
| Rīgas FS | Grobiņa | 5 - 0 | October 26, 2025 |
| Grobiņa | Rīgas FS | 2 - 3 | August 3, 2025 |
| Rīgas FS | Grobiņa | 6 - 0 | May 31, 2025 |
Rīgas FS Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 26 | Away | FK Jablonec | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 30, 26 | Away | Vestri | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 27, 26 | Away | Tukums | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 23, 26 | Home | Vestri | 4 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 20, 26 | Away | FS Jelgava | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 16, 26 | Home | Glentoran | 2 - 0 | Win |
Grobiņa Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 26 | Away | Riga | 4 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 27, 26 | Home | Ogre United | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 20, 26 | Away | Super Nova | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 5, 26 | Home | Tukums | 3 - 1 | Win |
| Jun 29, 26 | Away | FS Jelgava | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jun 25, 26 | Home | Auda | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Virsliga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rīgas FS | 24 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 56 | 16 | +40 | 62 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 41 | -24 | 21 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 62.12% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Rīgas FS to win
This prediction indicates that Rīgas FS has a 79.91% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 10.90 %Most Likely Scorelines
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