Primera División - Apertura
Match Analysis
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
Racing Montevideo
L
D
D
D
D
W
Boston River
L
D
D
L
L
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Both Racing Montevideo and Boston River are showing poor recent form, but Racing Montevideo has a clear quality gap in their favor and has dominated recent meetings between the two teams. Despite Boston River having a rest advantage and creating more shooting chances recently, past games between these sides have typically seen few goals. The model predicts a home win with a 54% probability, which is notably more confident than the market odds suggest, and also leans toward an under 1.5 goals outcome, aligning with the market's bias toward fewer goals.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston River | Racing Montevideo | 0 - 1 | March 14, 2026 |
| Boston River | Racing Montevideo | 1 - 0 | March 5, 2026 |
| Racing Montevideo | Boston River | 0 - 0 | September 13, 2025 |
| Racing Montevideo | Boston River | 2 - 0 | May 23, 2025 |
| Boston River | Racing Montevideo | 1 - 3 | March 22, 2025 |
| Boston River | Racing Montevideo | 1 - 2 | November 27, 2024 |
Racing Montevideo Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Cerro | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 12, 26 | Home | Penarol | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jun 6, 26 | Away | Central Espanol | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| May 30, 26 | Home | Defensor Sporting | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| May 22, 26 | Away | Liverpool Montevideo | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| May 17, 26 | Home | Cerro Largo | 1 - 0 | Win |
Boston River Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Penarol | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 12, 26 | Home | Central Espanol | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jun 7, 26 | Away | Defensor Sporting | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jun 1, 26 | Home | Liverpool Montevideo | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| May 26, 26 | Away | Sao Paulo | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| May 23, 26 | Away | Cerro Largo | 3 - 0 | Loss |
Primera División - Apertura Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 38 |
| 14 | Boston River | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 22 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 54.12% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Racing Montevideo to win
This prediction indicates that Racing Montevideo has a 54.12% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.14 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.62% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 61.09% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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