Erovnuli Liga
Match Analysis
Saburtalo
Dinamo Tbilisi
Saburtalo
W
W
L
W
L
L
Dinamo Tbilisi
W
W
D
D
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Saburtalo holds a modest quality edge over Dinamo Tbilisi, but their poor recent form contrasts with Dinamo Tbilisi's moderate recent performance, and Dinamo Tbilisi also have a rest advantage. The model predicts a home win with a 42% probability, which is notably less confident than what the current market odds imply. Additionally, the model sees a reasonable chance that both teams will score and that the match will have fewer than two goals, aligning somewhat with the market’s leaning toward a lower-scoring game.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Tbilisi | Saburtalo | 2 - 0 | May 16, 2026 |
| Saburtalo | Dinamo Tbilisi | 0 - 0 | March 15, 2026 |
| Saburtalo | Dinamo Tbilisi | 1 - 0 | November 26, 2025 |
| Dinamo Tbilisi | Saburtalo | 2 - 1 | September 19, 2025 |
| Saburtalo | Dinamo Tbilisi | 1 - 0 | May 20, 2025 |
| Dinamo Tbilisi | Saburtalo | 1 - 2 | April 9, 2025 |
Saburtalo Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 26 | Home | Dila | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Sep 13, 26 | Home | Spaeri | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 9, 26 | Away | Dinamo Batumi | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Samgurali | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 31, 26 | Away | Gagra | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 27, 26 | Home | Jagiellonia | 1 - 2 | Loss |
Dinamo Tbilisi Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 26 | Away | Samgurali | 2 - 3 | Win |
| Sep 14, 26 | Home | Gagra | 4 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 10, 26 | Home | Meshakhte | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | Torpedo Kutaisi | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 31, 26 | Home | Dila | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Rustavi | 0 - 3 | Loss |
Erovnuli Liga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Saburtalo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 43 |
| 4 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 42 |
Predictions
Saburtalo to win
This prediction indicates that Saburtalo has a 40.45% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.19 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.67% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.85% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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