Sacramento Republic vs Lexington Sunday 16th August 2026 06:00 AM football predictions.

Sacramento Republic Lexington

Sacramento Republic W D W L W L

Lexington D W L W W W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Lexington	Sacramento Republic	0 - 0	March 14, 2026
Lexington	Sacramento Republic	2 - 2	October 17, 2025
Sacramento Republic	Lexington	0 - 0	July 20, 2025

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 26, 26	Away	Oakland Roots	1 - 3	Win
Jul 18, 26	Away	Charleston Battery	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 9, 26	Home	Rhode Island	2 - 1	Win
Jun 21, 26	Home	New Mexico United	0 - 1	Loss
Jun 14, 26	Away	Colorado Springs	0 - 1	Win
May 31, 26	Away	Phoenix Rising	2 - 0	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 26, 26	Away	FC Tulsa	0 - 0	Draw
Jul 22, 26	Home	Oakland Roots	2 - 0	Win
Jul 15, 26	Home	New Mexico United	1 - 4	Loss
Jul 4, 26	Away	Tampa Bay Rowdies	1 - 4	Win
Jun 13, 26	Home	San Antonio	2 - 0	Win
May 31, 26	Away	El Paso Locomotive	1 - 4	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
10	Sacramento Republic	15	6	5	4	19	15	+4	23
13	Lexington	16	6	4	6	24	20	+4	22

This prediction suggests that there is a 50.83% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Sacramento Republic has a 41.96% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 33.56 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.04% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.47% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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