J3 League
Match Analysis
Sagamihara
Kitakyushu
Sagamihara
D
L
W
W
D
W
Kitakyushu
L
D
D
D
D
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sagamihara | Kitakyushu | 1 - 0 | August 23, 2025 |
| Kitakyushu | Sagamihara | 1 - 1 | April 20, 2025 |
| Sagamihara | Kitakyushu | 0 - 3 | October 6, 2024 |
| Kitakyushu | Sagamihara | 0 - 1 | February 24, 2024 |
| Sagamihara | Kitakyushu | 2 - 1 | September 30, 2023 |
| Kitakyushu | Sagamihara | 1 - 1 | April 29, 2023 |
Sagamihara Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Parceiro Nagano | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 29, 26 | Away | FC Ryukyu | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | Kanazawa | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 1 - 4 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Roasso Kumamoto | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jun 6, 26 | Home | Roasso Kumamoto | 3 - 0 | Win |
Kitakyushu Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 26 | Away | Ehime FC | 4 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 30, 26 | Home | Matsumoto Yamaga | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Tochigi SC | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 19, 26 | Home | Okinawa SV | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Kamatamare Sanuki | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Yokohama FC | 3 - 2 | Loss |
J3 League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sagamihara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 16 | Kitakyushu | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 50.85% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Sagamihara to win
This prediction indicates that Sagamihara has a 53.29% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.99 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.3% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.0% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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