First League
Match Analysis
Septemvri Sofia
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
W
L
L
L
D
W
CSKA 1948
W
D
W
D
W
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Septemvri Sofia have had poor form recently, while CSKA 1948 have been in strong form. The model also sees a clear quality gap favoring the away side, who have dominated recent meetings and have a rest advantage. With CSKA 1948 showing strong attacking form and Septemvri Sofia struggling defensively, the model predicts an away win with a 64% probability, which is notably more confident than the market odds suggest.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | CSKA 1948 | 1 - 4 | December 3, 2025 |
| CSKA 1948 | Septemvri Sofia | 2 - 1 | August 1, 2025 |
| CSKA 1948 | Septemvri Sofia | 2 - 0 | May 11, 2025 |
| CSKA 1948 | Septemvri Sofia | 2 - 0 | December 3, 2024 |
| Septemvri Sofia | CSKA 1948 | 1 - 1 | September 25, 2024 |
| CSKA 1948 | Septemvri Sofia | 2 - 1 | November 17, 2023 |
Septemvri Sofia Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 26 | Away | Spartak Varna | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | CSKA Sofia | 0 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Levski Sofia | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Arda Kardzhali | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 10, 26 | Home | Ludogorets | 1 - 0 | Win |
CSKA 1948 Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 26 | Home | Cherno More Varna | 4 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 11, 26 | Home | Panathinaikos | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Lokomotiv Sofia | 1 - 3 | Win |
| Aug 5, 26 | Away | Panathinaikos | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 31, 26 | Home | Arda Kardzhali | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 28, 26 | Home | Spartak Trnava | 0 - 0 | Draw |
First League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 |
Predictions
CSKA 1948 to win
This prediction indicates that CSKA 1948 has a 64.12% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 22.23 %Most Likely Scorelines
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