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Serie D logo

Serie D

June 14, 2026 2 weeks, 1 day ago
1 – 1
Full Time

Match Analysis

Sergipe Serra Branca
Sergipe L L D W W W
Serra Branca D W L D W D
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Serra Branca Sergipe 1 - 1 April 5, 2026

Sergipe Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
May 31, 26 Away Decisão 3 - 2 Loss
May 23, 26 Home Treze 0 - 1 Loss
May 16, 26 Away Lagarto 1 - 1 Draw
May 9, 26 Home Retrô 1 - 0 Win
May 4, 26 Away Retrô 1 - 3 Win
Apr 25, 26 Home Lagarto 3 - 1 Win

Serra Branca Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
May 31, 26 Home Retrô 0 - 0 Draw
May 24, 26 Away Decisão 0 - 1 Win
May 16, 26 Home Treze 1 - 2 Loss
May 9, 26 Home Lagarto 0 - 0 Draw
May 2, 26 Away Lagarto 1 - 2 Win
Apr 25, 26 Away Treze 1 - 1 Draw

Serie D Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
39 Serra Branca 9 3 5 1 11 7 +4 14
41 Sergipe 9 4 2 3 14 12 +2 14

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 55.83% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Sergipe to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Sergipe has a 41.39% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 32.22 %
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.85% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 60.62% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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