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Victoria NPL logo

Victoria NPL

July 5, 2026 5 days, 9 hours from now VS

Match Analysis

South Melbourne Dandenong Thunder
South Melbourne L W L D L L
Dandenong Thunder L L L L L D
EXPECTED GOALS
HEAD TO HEAD
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Dandenong Thunder South Melbourne 3 - 0 March 21, 2026
South Melbourne Dandenong Thunder 0 - 1 June 22, 2025
Dandenong Thunder South Melbourne 1 - 0 March 15, 2025
South Melbourne Dandenong Thunder 1 - 0 July 7, 2024
Dandenong Thunder South Melbourne 1 - 2 April 6, 2024
South Melbourne Dandenong Thunder 3 - 2 June 13, 2023

South Melbourne Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jun 28, 26 Home Green Gully 1 - 2 Loss
Jun 19, 26 Away Bentleigh Greens 1 - 5 Win
Jun 7, 26 Home Altona Magic 2 - 3 Loss
May 30, 26 Away Hume City 1 - 1 Draw
May 25, 26 Home Avondale 0 - 4 Loss
May 18, 26 Home Sunshine Georgies 0 - 4 Loss

Dandenong Thunder Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jun 27, 26 Home Hume City 1 - 3 Loss
Jun 20, 26 Away Avondale 11 - 0 Loss
Jun 6, 26 Home Sunshine Georgies 2 - 3 Loss
May 29, 26 Away Heidelberg United 4 - 2 Loss
May 24, 26 Away Melbourne City II 2 - 0 Loss
May 16, 26 Home St. Albans Saints 2 - 2 Draw

Victoria NPL Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
8 South Melbourne 17 8 1 8 27 30 -3 25
13 Dandenong Thunder 18 3 3 12 20 41 -21 12

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 60.1% likelihood that both South Melbourne and Dandenong Thunder will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.
South Melbourne to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that South Melbourne has a 35.36% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 32.71 %
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 64.03% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.
Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 62.51% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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