South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder Sunday 05th July 2026 08:30 AM football predictions.

Match Analysis

South Melbourne Dandenong Thunder

South Melbourne L W L D L L

Dandenong Thunder L L L L L D

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Dandenong Thunder	South Melbourne	3 - 0	March 21, 2026
South Melbourne	Dandenong Thunder	0 - 1	June 22, 2025
Dandenong Thunder	South Melbourne	1 - 0	March 15, 2025
South Melbourne	Dandenong Thunder	1 - 0	July 7, 2024
Dandenong Thunder	South Melbourne	1 - 2	April 6, 2024
South Melbourne	Dandenong Thunder	3 - 2	June 13, 2023

South Melbourne Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 28, 26	Home	Green Gully	1 - 2	Loss
Jun 19, 26	Away	Bentleigh Greens	1 - 5	Win
Jun 7, 26	Home	Altona Magic	2 - 3	Loss
May 30, 26	Away	Hume City	1 - 1	Draw
May 25, 26	Home	Avondale	0 - 4	Loss
May 18, 26	Home	Sunshine Georgies	0 - 4	Loss

Dandenong Thunder Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 27, 26	Home	Hume City	1 - 3	Loss
Jun 20, 26	Away	Avondale	11 - 0	Loss
Jun 6, 26	Home	Sunshine Georgies	2 - 3	Loss
May 29, 26	Away	Heidelberg United	4 - 2	Loss
May 24, 26	Away	Melbourne City II	2 - 0	Loss
May 16, 26	Home	St. Albans Saints	2 - 2	Draw

Victoria NPL Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
8	South Melbourne	17	8	1	8	27	30	-3	25
13	Dandenong Thunder	18	3	3	12	20	41	-21	12

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 60.1% likelihood that both South Melbourne and Dandenong Thunder will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

South Melbourne to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that South Melbourne has a 35.36% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 32.71 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 64.03% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 62.51% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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