Spennymoor Town vs Merthyr Town Saturday 15th August 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Spennymoor Town Merthyr Town

Spennymoor Town L L D W L L

Merthyr Town W L L D W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Merthyr Town	Spennymoor Town	2 - 3	March 14, 2026
Spennymoor Town	Merthyr Town	6 - 4	October 18, 2025

Spennymoor Town Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 25, 26	Home	FC Halifax Town	1 - 3	Loss
Jul 18, 26	Home	Hartlepool	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Home	Marine	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 18, 26	Away	Macclesfield	0 - 2	Win
Apr 11, 26	Home	Worksop Town	0 - 1	Loss
Apr 6, 26	Away	Scarborough Athletic	1 - 0	Loss

Merthyr Town Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 28, 26	Home	Swansea	3 - 0	Win
Jul 21, 26	Away	Briton Ferry	3 - 0	Loss
Jul 18, 26	Home	Forest Green	1 - 2	Loss
Jul 14, 26	Home	Yeovil Town	2 - 2	Draw
Jul 10, 26	Home	Cambrian & Clydach	4 - 2	Win
Apr 25, 26	Home	AFC Fylde	2 - 4	Loss

National League - North Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
None	Merthyr Town	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None
None	Spennymoor Town	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 62.24% likelihood that both Spennymoor Town and Merthyr Town will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Spennymoor Town to win

This prediction indicates that Spennymoor Town has a 46.12% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.11 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.34% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 62.26% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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