Sporting Paulinense vs Independente SP Sunday 12th July 2026 11:00 PM football predictions.

Sporting Paulinense Independente SP

Sporting Paulinense W W W W L W

Independente SP W W W L L W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 5, 26	Home	Sao Carlos	2 - 0	Win
Jun 27, 26	Away	Sao Carlos	0 - 1	Win
Jun 20, 26	Away	Guarulhos	1 - 2	Win
Jun 14, 26	Home	Gremio Osasco Audax	1 - 0	Win
Jun 7, 26	Home	Flamengo SP	0 - 1	Loss
May 30, 26	Away	Votoraty	1 - 2	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 5, 26	Home	Tupa	2 - 0	Win
Jun 28, 26	Away	Tupa	0 - 2	Win
Jun 20, 26	Home	Grêmio Catanduvense	17 - 0	Win
Jun 13, 26	Away	Sao Carlos	2 - 0	Loss
Jun 7, 26	Home	Santacruzense	0 - 1	Loss
May 30, 26	Home	Mogi Mirim	4 - 1	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Independente SP	11	9	0	2	39	7	+32	27
9	Sporting Paulinense	11	6	0	5	10	16	-6	18

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.32% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Independente SP has a 65.12% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 19.96 %

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