Stranraer vs Ayr Utd Saturday 11th July 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Stranraer Ayr Utd

Stranraer W D W D L W

Ayr Utd W L L L W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Ayr Utd	Stranraer	4 - 1	January 13, 2026
Ayr Utd	Stranraer	2 - 0	July 8, 2023
Ayr Utd	Stranraer	2 - 1	June 25, 2022
Ayr Utd	Stranraer	1 - 1	November 14, 2020
Ayr Utd	Stranraer	2 - 2	July 27, 2019
Ayr Utd	Stranraer	1 - 2	April 14, 2018

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 27, 26	Home	Dundela	4 - 0	Win
Jun 20, 26	Home	Larne	0 - 0	Draw
May 2, 26	Away	Elgin City	0 - 1	Win
Apr 25, 26	Home	Stirling Albion	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 18, 26	Home	Forfar Athletic	0 - 1	Loss
Apr 11, 26	Away	Spartans	1 - 2	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 27, 26	Home	Glenafton Athletic	3 - 0	Win
May 1, 26	Home	ST Johnstone	0 - 1	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Away	Airdrie United	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 18, 26	Away	Ross County	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 11, 26	Home	Arbroath	1 - 0	Win
Apr 7, 26	Home	Dunfermline	0 - 3	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
None	Ayr Utd	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None
None	Stranraer	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None

This prediction indicates that Ayr Utd has a 37.97% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 33.62 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.78% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.77% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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