Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington Sunday 05th July 2026 01:00 AM football predictions.

Tampa Bay Rowdies Lexington

Tampa Bay Rowdies W L D W W W

Lexington W W L W L D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Lexington	Tampa Bay Rowdies	1 - 1	May 24, 2025

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 20, 26	Away	Brooklyn	0 - 2	Win
Jun 13, 26	Home	Hartford Athletic	0 - 1	Loss
Jun 10, 26	Home	Charleston Battery	2 - 2	Draw
May 30, 26	Away	Louisville City	0 - 2	Win
May 23, 26	Home	Phoenix Rising	3 - 0	Win
May 21, 26	Away	New Mexico United	0 - 1	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 13, 26	Home	San Antonio	2 - 0	Win
May 31, 26	Away	El Paso Locomotive	1 - 4	Win
May 23, 26	Away	Indy Eleven	3 - 1	Loss
May 8, 26	Home	Monterey Bay	3 - 1	Win
May 3, 26	Away	Las Vegas Lights	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 19, 26	Away	Orange County SC	0 - 0	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	14	9	4	1	23	8	+15	31
19	Lexington	12	4	3	5	17	15	+2	15

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.38% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Tampa Bay Rowdies has a 45.41% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 32.83 %

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