Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC Sunday 04th October 2026 02:30 AM football predictions.

USL Championship

Oct. 4, 2026 1 week, 6 days from now VS

Tampa Bay Rowdies Miami FC

Tampa Bay Rowdies L W D L W W

Miami FC D D L L L D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Miami FC	Tampa Bay Rowdies	2 - 3	July 25, 2026
Tampa Bay Rowdies	Miami FC	2 - 1	June 14, 2025
Miami FC	Tampa Bay Rowdies	1 - 2	March 22, 2025
Tampa Bay Rowdies	Miami FC	2 - 0	August 24, 2024
Miami FC	Tampa Bay Rowdies	2 - 5	April 11, 2024
Miami FC	Tampa Bay Rowdies	0 - 2	August 26, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 12, 26	Away	Hartford Athletic	3 - 1	Loss
Sep 5, 26	Home	Brooklyn	2 - 0	Win
Aug 29, 26	Away	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 22, 26	Away	Detroit City	1 - 0	Loss
Aug 15, 26	Home	Rhode Island	2 - 0	Win
Aug 9, 26	Away	Orange County SC	0 - 3	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 12, 26	Away	Brooklyn	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 6, 26	Home	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2 - 2	Draw
Aug 24, 26	Away	Charleston Battery	5 - 0	Loss
Aug 15, 26	Away	Hartford Athletic	2 - 1	Loss
Aug 8, 26	Home	Las Vegas Lights	0 - 1	Loss
Aug 1, 26	Home	Detroit City	2 - 2	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	24	14	6	4	41	23	+18	48
20	Miami FC	24	5	9	10	28	42	-14	24

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.21% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Tampa Bay Rowdies has a 68.55% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 18.35 %

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