Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Rhode Island Sunday 16th August 2026 02:30 AM football predictions.

Tampa Bay Rowdies Rhode Island

Tampa Bay Rowdies W D L W L D

Rhode Island W W L D W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Rhode Island	Tampa Bay Rowdies	1 - 1	May 9, 2026
Rhode Island	Tampa Bay Rowdies	5 - 0	October 11, 2025
Tampa Bay Rowdies	Rhode Island	0 - 3	May 17, 2025
Rhode Island	Tampa Bay Rowdies	3 - 1	October 5, 2024
Tampa Bay Rowdies	Rhode Island	4 - 1	March 30, 2024

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 25, 26	Away	Miami FC	2 - 3	Win
Jul 18, 26	Away	Loudoun United	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 4, 26	Home	Lexington	1 - 4	Loss
Jun 20, 26	Away	Brooklyn	0 - 2	Win
Jun 13, 26	Home	Hartford Athletic	0 - 1	Loss
Jun 10, 26	Home	Charleston Battery	2 - 2	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 25, 26	Away	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0 - 1	Win
Jul 18, 26	Home	Hartford Athletic	1 - 0	Win
Jul 9, 26	Away	Sacramento Republic	2 - 1	Loss
Jul 4, 26	Home	Orange County SC	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 13, 26	Away	Loudoun United	1 - 4	Win
May 30, 26	Away	Indy Eleven	1 - 0	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	17	10	5	2	28	15	+13	35
12	Rhode Island	15	6	4	5	25	18	+7	22

This prediction indicates that Tampa Bay Rowdies has a 45.23% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.61 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.16% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.96% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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