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J2 League

May 30, 2026 4 weeks, 2 days ago
3 – 1
Full Time

Match Analysis

Tokushima Vortis Sagan Tosu
Tokushima Vortis D D L L L D
Sagan Tosu D D W W D D
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
HEAD TO HEAD
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Sagan Tosu Tokushima Vortis 0 - 0 November 2, 2025
Tokushima Vortis Sagan Tosu 0 - 1 May 6, 2025
Tokushima Vortis Sagan Tosu 3 - 0 October 3, 2021
Sagan Tosu Tokushima Vortis 2 - 0 May 1, 2021
Sagan Tosu Tokushima Vortis 3 - 1 July 11, 2018
Tokushima Vortis Sagan Tosu 0 - 1 November 22, 2014

Tokushima Vortis Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
May 24, 26 Home Imabari 1 - 1 Draw
May 17, 26 Away Kataller Toyama 2 - 2 Draw
May 10, 26 Home Nara Club 1 - 2 Loss
May 6, 26 Away Albirex Niigata 1 - 0 Loss
May 2, 26 Home Ehime FC 0 - 6 Loss
Apr 29, 26 Away Osaka 2 - 2 Draw

Sagan Tosu Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
May 23, 26 Home FC Ryukyu 2 - 2 Draw
May 16, 26 Home Renofa Yamaguchi 1 - 1 Draw
May 10, 26 Away Oita Trinita 0 - 1 Win
May 6, 26 Home Gainare Tottori 4 - 0 Win
May 2, 26 Home Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1 - 1 Draw
Apr 29, 26 Away Kagoshima United 1 - 1 Draw

J2 League Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
7 Tokushima Vortis 18 9 3 6 36 22 +14 30
8 Sagan Tosu 18 8 6 4 24 14 +10 30

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 53.41% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.
Sagan Tosu to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Sagan Tosu has a 37.61% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.48 %
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.99% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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