Tokushima Vortis vs Sagan Tosu Sunday 16th August 2026 01:00 PM football predictions.

Tokushima Vortis Sagan Tosu

Tokushima Vortis W W D D L L

Sagan Tosu W W L D D W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Tokushima Vortis	Sagan Tosu	3 - 1	May 30, 2026
Sagan Tosu	Tokushima Vortis	0 - 0	November 2, 2025
Tokushima Vortis	Sagan Tosu	0 - 1	May 6, 2025
Tokushima Vortis	Sagan Tosu	3 - 0	October 3, 2021
Sagan Tosu	Tokushima Vortis	2 - 0	May 1, 2021
Sagan Tosu	Tokushima Vortis	3 - 1	July 11, 2018

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 7, 26	Home	Iwaki	2 - 0	Win
May 30, 26	Home	Sagan Tosu	3 - 1	Win
May 24, 26	Home	Imabari	1 - 1	Draw
May 17, 26	Away	Kataller Toyama	2 - 2	Draw
May 10, 26	Home	Nara Club	1 - 2	Loss
May 6, 26	Away	Albirex Niigata	1 - 0	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 20, 26	Home	Verspah Oita	7 - 1	Win
Jun 6, 26	Home	Shonan Bellmare	1 - 0	Win
May 30, 26	Away	Tokushima Vortis	3 - 1	Loss
May 23, 26	Home	FC Ryukyu	2 - 2	Draw
May 16, 26	Home	Renofa Yamaguchi	1 - 1	Draw
May 10, 26	Away	Oita Trinita	0 - 1	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	Tokushima Vortis	19	10	3	6	39	23	+16	33
8	Sagan Tosu	20	9	6	5	26	17	+9	33

This prediction indicates that Tokushima Vortis has a 44.32% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.90 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.34% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.42% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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