Tondela vs Amarante Sunday 09th August 2026 06:00 PM football predictions.

Tondela Amarante

Tondela L W D W L W

Amarante L W W D D W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 25, 26	Home	Beira-Mar	1 - 2	Loss
Jul 22, 26	Home	Academica	2 - 1	Win
Jul 19, 26	Home	Nacional	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 15, 26	Home	Varzim	1 - 0	Win
May 16, 26	Away	Arouca	3 - 1	Loss
May 11, 26	Home	Moreirense	2 - 0	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 22, 26	Away	Chaves	2 - 1	Loss
May 16, 26	Away	Guimaraes B	1 - 3	Win
May 10, 26	Home	União Santarém	1 - 0	Win
May 1, 26	Away	Trofense	0 - 0	Draw
Apr 26, 26	Home	CF Os Belenenses	2 - 2	Draw
Apr 19, 26	Away	Mafra	1 - 4	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
None	Amarante	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None
None	Tondela	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None

This prediction suggests that there is a 50.24% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Tondela has a 38.36% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 33.61 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.67% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 60.23% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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