1st League - FBiH
Match Analysis
Travnik
Zvijezda Gradačac
Travnik
W
W
W
W
W
D
Zvijezda Gradačac
D
L
W
L
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts a home win for Travnik with a 57% probability. Travnik's strong recent form contrasts with Zvijezda Gradačac's poor recent form, despite the sides being closely matched in overall quality and having similar rest. The market odds (Home 1.49) imply a higher likelihood of a home win than the model's view, suggesting the model is slightly less confident than what the odds suggest. Additionally, the model sees a 43% chance of both teams scoring, indicating it leans toward 'no' for both teams to score, and predicts an 'under' for both the 1.5 and 2.5 goal lines, though with less certainty compared to the home win outcome.
Travnik Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Away | TOŠK Tešanj | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Budućnost Banovići | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 29, 26 | Away | Tomislav | 2 - 4 | Win |
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | Vitez | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | Rudar Kakanj | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jun 7, 26 | Home | Radnik Hadžići | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Zvijezda Gradačac Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 26 | Home | Sloboda Tuzla | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | GOŠK Gabela | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Radnik Hadžići | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Posušje | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | TOŠK Tešanj | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Zvijezda 09 | 0 - 6 | Win |
1st League - FBiH Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travnik | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 15 |
| 11 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Travnik to win
This prediction indicates that Travnik has a 56.72% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.71 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.91% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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