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Serie D logo

Serie D

May 30, 2026 4 weeks, 2 days ago
1 – 2
Full Time

Match Analysis

Treze Lagarto
Treze W W W D W L
Lagarto D D D L L L
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Lagarto Treze 5 - 4 April 11, 2026

Treze Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
May 23, 26 Away Sergipe 0 - 1 Win
May 16, 26 Away Serra Branca 1 - 2 Win
May 10, 26 Home Decisão 2 - 0 Win
Apr 25, 26 Home Serra Branca 1 - 1 Draw
Apr 19, 26 Home Sergipe 3 - 1 Win
Apr 11, 26 Away Lagarto 5 - 4 Loss

Lagarto Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
May 24, 26 Away Retrô 1 - 1 Draw
May 16, 26 Home Sergipe 1 - 1 Draw
May 9, 26 Away Serra Branca 0 - 0 Draw
May 2, 26 Home Serra Branca 1 - 2 Loss
Apr 25, 26 Away Sergipe 3 - 1 Loss
Apr 18, 26 Home Retrô 1 - 2 Loss

Serie D Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
9 Treze 7 5 1 1 16 8 +8 16
78 Lagarto 8 1 4 3 11 14 -3 7

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 51.06% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.
Treze to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Treze has a 35.66% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.99 %
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.96% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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