Treze vs Lagarto Saturday 30th May 2026 11:00 PM football predictions.

Treze Lagarto

Treze W W W D W L

Lagarto D D D L L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Lagarto	Treze	5 - 4	April 11, 2026

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 23, 26	Away	Sergipe	0 - 1	Win
May 16, 26	Away	Serra Branca	1 - 2	Win
May 10, 26	Home	Decisão	2 - 0	Win
Apr 25, 26	Home	Serra Branca	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 19, 26	Home	Sergipe	3 - 1	Win
Apr 11, 26	Away	Lagarto	5 - 4	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 24, 26	Away	Retrô	1 - 1	Draw
May 16, 26	Home	Sergipe	1 - 1	Draw
May 9, 26	Away	Serra Branca	0 - 0	Draw
May 2, 26	Home	Serra Branca	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Away	Sergipe	3 - 1	Loss
Apr 18, 26	Home	Retrô	1 - 2	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
9	Treze	7	5	1	1	16	8	+8	16
78	Lagarto	8	1	4	3	11	14	-3	7

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.06% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Treze has a 35.66% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.99 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.96% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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