Primera Nacional
Match Analysis
Tristan Suarez
Almirante Brown
Tristan Suarez
W
W
W
W
L
D
Almirante Brown
W
W
D
D
D
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts a home win for Tristan Suarez with a 42% probability. The model sees Tristan Suarez as the stronger side due to their clear quality gap and strong recent form, as well as their history of dominating recent meetings with plenty of goals. However, the model also notes that Almirante Brown have a rest advantage, which may influence the match. The market odds suggest a similar level of confidence in the home win as the model, and the model is more confident than the market in both teams not scoring and the match staying under 2.5 goals.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almirante Brown | Tristan Suarez | 0 - 1 | March 28, 2026 |
| Tristan Suarez | Almirante Brown | 2 - 2 | June 30, 2024 |
| Almirante Brown | Tristan Suarez | 1 - 2 | February 11, 2024 |
| Almirante Brown | Tristan Suarez | 2 - 2 | September 18, 2022 |
| Almirante Brown | Tristan Suarez | 0 - 0 | December 5, 2020 |
| Tristan Suarez | Almirante Brown | 2 - 1 | February 16, 2020 |
Tristan Suarez Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 26 | Away | Gimnasia Jujuy | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 3, 26 | Away | Club Atlético Güemes | 1 - 3 | Win |
| Jul 25, 26 | Home | Chacarita Juniors | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 11, 26 | Home | Nueva Chicago | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 4, 26 | Away | Temperley | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jun 21, 26 | Away | Chacarita Juniors | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Almirante Brown Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Ciudad de Bolívar | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Racing Cordoba | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Atletico Mitre | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 17, 26 | Home | CA Estudiantes | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 11, 26 | Away | All Boys | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 4, 26 | Home | Los Andes | 1 - 0 | Win |
Primera Nacional Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tristan Suarez | 23 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 42 |
| 8 | Almirante Brown | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 38 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 61.82% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Tristan Suarez to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Tristan Suarez has a 41.8% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 36.97 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 67.69% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 68.67% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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