Tukums vs Rīgas FS Sunday 26th July 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Tukums Rīgas FS

Tukums L L L L W D

Rīgas FS W D W W W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Rīgas FS	Tukums	3 - 1	May 25, 2026
Tukums	Rīgas FS	1 - 2	April 13, 2026
Tukums	Rīgas FS	2 - 4	October 19, 2025
Rīgas FS	Tukums	6 - 2	July 26, 2025
Tukums	Rīgas FS	2 - 5	May 25, 2025
Rīgas FS	Tukums	2 - 0	April 9, 2025

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 5, 26	Away	Grobiņa	3 - 1	Loss
Jul 1, 26	Home	Super Nova	1 - 2	Loss
Jun 26, 26	Away	Ogre United	3 - 2	Loss
Jun 21, 26	Away	FS Jelgava	4 - 1	Loss
Jun 17, 26	Home	Auda	2 - 1	Win
Jun 12, 26	Home	BFC Daugavpils	1 - 1	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 9, 26	Away	Glentoran	1 - 2	Win
Jul 4, 26	Home	Auda	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 30, 26	Home	BFC Daugavpils	3 - 1	Win
Jun 26, 26	Away	FK Liepaja	0 - 2	Win
Jun 22, 26	Home	Ogre United	6 - 0	Win
Jun 17, 26	Away	Riga	2 - 1	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	22	18	2	2	54	16	+38	56
9	Tukums	22	3	8	11	37	44	-7	17

This prediction suggests that there is a 50.05% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Rīgas FS has a 76.7% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 11.62 %

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