Tusker vs APS Bomet Saturday 30th May 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

Tusker APS Bomet

Tusker L L W L L D

APS Bomet W W W W W W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
APS Bomet	Tusker	0 - 1	December 21, 2025

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 27, 26	Away	Ulinzi Stars	2 - 0	Loss
May 24, 26	Away	Bandari	1 - 0	Loss
May 10, 26	Home	Bidco United	2 - 0	Win
May 6, 26	Away	Nairobi United	1 - 0	Loss
Apr 24, 26	Home	Mara Sugar	0 - 1	Loss
Apr 18, 26	Home	Sofapaka	0 - 0	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 24, 26	Home	AFC Leopards	2 - 1	Win
May 20, 26	Away	Bandari	0 - 2	Win
May 10, 26	Away	Mathare United	0 - 2	Win
May 6, 26	Home	KCB	1 - 0	Win
Apr 26, 26	Home	Sofapaka	1 - 0	Win
Apr 19, 26	Away	Posta Rangers FC	0 - 3	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
11	Tusker	33	13	5	15	26	31	-5	44
12	APS Bomet	33	11	10	12	36	34	+2	43

This prediction suggests that there is a 58.51% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Correct Prediction! ✅

This prediction indicates that Tusker has a 39.38% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 35.36 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

This prediction indicates that there is a 63.38% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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