Tusker vs Mara Sugar Friday 02nd October 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

FKF Premier League

Tusker

Oct. 2, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Mara Sugar

Match Analysis

Tusker Mara Sugar

Tusker W D D L L W

Mara Sugar L D L W L W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Tusker	Mara Sugar	0 - 1	April 24, 2026
Mara Sugar	Tusker	0 - 1	November 29, 2025
Mara Sugar	Tusker	1 - 1	April 6, 2025
Tusker	Mara Sugar	2 - 1	November 27, 2024
Mara Sugar	Tusker	1 - 2	September 18, 2022

Tusker Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 12, 26	Home	Al Ahli Wad Medani	1 - 0	Win
Sep 6, 26	Away	Al Ahli Wad Medani	2 - 2	Draw
May 31, 26	Home	APS Bomet	1 - 1	Draw
May 27, 26	Away	Ulinzi Stars	2 - 0	Loss
May 24, 26	Away	Bandari	1 - 0	Loss
May 10, 26	Home	Bidco United	2 - 0	Win

Mara Sugar Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 31, 26	Away	Murang'a SEAL	2 - 1	Loss
May 27, 26	Home	GOR Mahia	0 - 0	Draw
May 16, 26	Home	Mathare United	0 - 1	Loss
May 13, 26	Home	Shabana	1 - 0	Win
May 9, 26	Away	AFC Leopards	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 24, 26	Away	Tusker	0 - 1	Win

FKF Premier League Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
None	Mara Sugar	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None
None	Tusker	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 59.17% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Tusker to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that Tusker has a 42.25% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 34.68 %

Under 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 65.15% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 67.6% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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