Primera División
Match Analysis
UCV Moquegua
Sport Boys
UCV Moquegua
L
D
D
D
L
D
Sport Boys
D
W
W
L
W
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts a home win for UCV Moquegua with a 34% probability. Despite the teams being closely matched in overall quality, UCV Moquegua's poor recent form and defensive struggles contrast with Sport Boys' strong recent form and higher chance creation. The model's confidence in a home win is lower than what the market odds suggest, as the odds imply a stronger favorability for the home side. The model also sees a 45% chance that both teams will not score and a 45% chance the game stays under 1.5 goals, views that align closely with the market's perspective on these outcomes.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Boys | UCV Moquegua | 0 - 0 | March 1, 2026 |
UCV Moquegua Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Deportivo Garcilaso | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | FBC Melgar | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | UTC | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Comerciantes Unidos | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| May 29, 26 | Away | Atletico Grau | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| May 23, 26 | Home | Universitario | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Sport Boys Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Alianza Lima | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Atletico Grau | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 25, 26 | Home | ADT | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 19, 26 | Away | Cultural Santa Rosa | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| May 30, 26 | Home | Comerciantes Unidos | 1 - 0 | Win |
| May 23, 26 | Away | UTC | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Primera División Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sport Boys | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 27 |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 21 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 55.33% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
UCV Moquegua to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that UCV Moquegua has a 34.16% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 32.85 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.85% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 59.98% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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